Fertilizer markets have been very stable for the last two months, contrary to what I thought they would be doing. I thought we would see fertilizer follow corn a lot closer than it has. I still feel that we will see strength before spring season. I am surprised we haven’t had much movement yet. There was a lot of fertilizer bought early this year and there was a decent fall fertilizer season. Some pressure going into spring may be who wins the acre battle and what happens with in season imports. Fertilizer supply is tough in season because we can apply so many acres so quickly.
Urea: Urea is stable, but expect inseason prices to increase due to supply. Especially in-state warehouses. I understand there might be urea in the cities, but it needs to be accessable, and trucks are not always a dime a dozen in the spring.
NH3: Anhydrous is tight all over for this spring. It is a good value compared to urea per unit of nitrogen.
MAP: We may see this market increase $10-30 before season starts. Similar to urea, may be tight in season due to demand.
Potash: Potash has been getting a lot of buzz in the news. Potash Corp. is ramping up production and I would guess that potash, for the next few years, will be expensive. China, India, and Brazil have been increasing their fertilizer consumption, especially of Phosphorus and Potash.
AMS: AMS price is driven by supply or lack of supply. If you need AMS, get it booked, just to make sure that you will get it.
Liquids: Liquids remain strong. 10-34-0 and others used for starter fertilizer have risen the most in the last few months. I expect them to keep increasing between now and spring.
Once again, my recommendation is to get your fertilizer needs covered for the 2011 crop. Basically, no change in recommendation. Liquids are the main concern to get purchased. There has been interest in fertilizer for the 2012 crop. Maybe not a bad idea, but be sure to hedge purchases with grain sales if you go down that road.
